關於計算翻牌賠率的困惑


1

我正在瀏覽一篇寫著的文章:

"例如,如果您擁有兩張紅心,而翻牌中有兩張紅心,則您有9張出局可以打平,在轉牌時有18%的命中率,河牌有36%的命中率該捷徑可與底池賠率一起使用,以評估您是否值得繼續抽獎。"

我不知道這18%和36%是如何計算的。如果我在47張牌中有4張紅心,在轉牌時還剩下9張出局,則9/47 = 19%左右。如果我沒有在轉彎處擊中,那麼在河牌圈應該是9/46 = 13%左右。那18%和36%呢?我算錯了嗎?

1

you are not calculating it wrong, the article states that 18% and 36% is a shortcut. the author of the article counts each out as 2% for each remaining street after the flop. so if there are 9 outs to a flush draw, there is (9*2 =) 18% chance to hit the flush on the turn, and another 18% chance to hit it on the river, giving 36% to hit the flush before showdown.

this is simply a fast way of calculating the percentage that you will make your hand at the table, rather than having to think about what 9/46 is.


1

The author is using a rule-of-thumb approximation. Your exact probability of hitting the turn is, as you say, 9/47, or about 19.15%. Your probability of hitting the turn OR the river is equal to (1 - (prob. of missing both turn and river)), or (1 - (38/47 * 37/46)), or 756/2162, or about 34.97%