博彩價值,我們沒有莊家保證金


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我正在嘗試用我的百分比來找到一個賭注的價值,以使一些團隊獲勝,看看我是否認為某項賭注具有價值。我的問題是,當我根據某支球隊獲勝的百分比計算投注值時,是否應該包括莊家保證金?

我認為我需要將博彩公司利潤率增加到我的百分比中,以使他們增加賠率的利潤率變得均勻-這是錯誤的嗎?我應該只按照百分比計算而不增加博彩公司利潤嗎?

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Fundamentally, you don't care what the bookie's margin is. If for a bet of X, your expected payout is 1.70X and the chance of winning is 0.60, then your expected payout is (0.60 * 1.70)X = 1.02X and you're in the money. Assuming your estimate of 0.60 is correct of course...

The only disclaimer here is to ensure that your payout is actually 1.70X; if you're in a jurisdiction which taxes betting in some way, be very careful as to whether the quoted odds are net of tax.